Saturday, October 30, 2004
Electoral high-school is more like it
The current polling data supports this conclusion in the electoral college:
Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 243 Bush 280
However with these assumptions (which most pollsters are backing):
- Voters who already have made a choice will stick to it
- The undecideds will break 2:1 for the challenger (Kerry)
- In states where Nader is on the ballot, he will get 1%; otherwise 0% (was 2.74% nationally in 2000)
- The minor candidates such as Badnarik, Cobb, etc. will get 1% of the vote (was 1.01% in 2000)
The results will be as follows:
Predicted Final Results: Kerry 289 Bush 223
As I really hate the electoral college, I generated a predicted popular vote based on the predicted state-by-state percentages, and from that data it looks like we could possibly have Kerry winning the electoral vote without the popular vote.
This makes me very happy for two reasons: There have only been 3 cases in American history where the candidate didn't both the popular and the electoral vote, twice back in the 19th century, and once 4 years ago. Another mistake this year would perhaps garner enough force to remove the electoral college (especially with a bunch of pissed off Republicans backing it).
The other reason I'd be happy is we'd have a Kerry win :)
It's going to be close either way....
Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 243 Bush 280
However with these assumptions (which most pollsters are backing):
- Voters who already have made a choice will stick to it
- The undecideds will break 2:1 for the challenger (Kerry)
- In states where Nader is on the ballot, he will get 1%; otherwise 0% (was 2.74% nationally in 2000)
- The minor candidates such as Badnarik, Cobb, etc. will get 1% of the vote (was 1.01% in 2000)
The results will be as follows:
Predicted Final Results: Kerry 289 Bush 223
As I really hate the electoral college, I generated a predicted popular vote based on the predicted state-by-state percentages, and from that data it looks like we could possibly have Kerry winning the electoral vote without the popular vote.
This makes me very happy for two reasons: There have only been 3 cases in American history where the candidate didn't both the popular and the electoral vote, twice back in the 19th century, and once 4 years ago. Another mistake this year would perhaps garner enough force to remove the electoral college (especially with a bunch of pissed off Republicans backing it).
The other reason I'd be happy is we'd have a Kerry win :)
It's going to be close either way....
