I'm Climbing Up Those Walls Again

The current polling data supports this conclusion in the electoral college:

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 243 Bush 280

However with these assumptions (which most pollsters are backing):

- Voters who already have made a choice will stick to it
- The undecideds will break 2:1 for the challenger (Kerry)
- In states where Nader is on the ballot, he will get 1%; otherwise 0% (was 2.74% nationally in 2000)
- The minor candidates such as Badnarik, Cobb, etc. will get 1% of the vote (was 1.01% in 2000)

The results will be as follows:

Predicted Final Results: Kerry 289 Bush 223

As I really hate the electoral college, I generated a predicted popular vote based on the predicted state-by-state percentages, and from that data it looks like we could possibly have Kerry winning the electoral vote without the popular vote.

This makes me very happy for two reasons: There have only been 3 cases in American history where the candidate didn't both the popular and the electoral vote, twice back in the 19th century, and once 4 years ago. Another mistake this year would perhaps garner enough force to remove the electoral college (especially with a bunch of pissed off Republicans backing it).

The other reason I'd be happy is we'd have a Kerry win :)

It's going to be close either way....

I've had a week of tests, bowling, data analysis, blind date filming, and sleep deprivation. As I'm about to pass out, I thought I'd leave everyone with the funniest ad I've seen in a long time:

Nutri-Grain Ad (Quicktime)

Isn't this just so beautiful?

Isn't it all this beautiful?

It's been a while since sci-fi has examined a future where liberty is substantially restricted. The Matrix came close, but as it was not a perceptible restriction, humanity could not understand that it was worse off. Gattaca is the only recent example that comes to mind. Code 46 is a recent release that I believe also touches on the subject.

Equilibrium (listen to a clip of the soundtrack here is a pretty strong attempt at bringing us back to a psuedo-1984/Fahrenheit 451 future. WWIII, as expected, has occurred, and human emotions have been deemed the weakness that is our downfall. Because of this, in the city of Libria, to maintain equilibrium, all citizens must take a drug (by the clock) that repressed human emotion. To reinforce this, the government is in the process of hunting down and destroying any objects from the old days that may stir up any emotion.

The near relative of 1984's Big Brother, Father, watches over the populace and preaches the word of un-feeling. The punishment for sense-crime is harsh, and is quickly elevated to instant execution during the course of the movie. In order to exact Father's word, there is a line of uber-hardcore soldiers, known as Grammaton Clerics. A cleric's job is to route out sense-offenders, and when the movie opens, they are currently closing in on the last remnants of the resistance.

However, after executing his own partner for sense-crime, Cleric John Preston (Christian Bale)accidentally destroys his dose of the un-feeling drug, and begins to sense the world around him. Preston's wife was executed several years past, and the arrest of another pretty lady (Emile Watson) begins to stir the now un-caged emotions in him. His new partner, played by Tay Diggs, obviously catches on quick, although I found Preston's awakening to be a little too obvious.

After contacting the resistance, Preston is given an impossible goal: kill Father

Anyway, if you'd like to see an interested re-thinking of Fahrenheit 451, with a little bit of corny action put in (the Clerics train in Gun-kata, which maximizes pistol damage, or something), then Equilibrium is good choice for the evening. It's well shot, well-acted, and pretty-well actioned. Why can't we have more of this kind of sci-fi?