Wednesday, November 03, 2004
Election Update
We don’t have a president yet. Why not?
Well, it’s been a tense and once again an unprecedented election night. Kerry’s predicted win has slipped into a grapple to hold on, much like Gore’s attempt to remain in the public light after election night in 2000. The Democratic party is down, but not out. Let’s take a look at where we were when I submitted this blog.
Bush: 254 electoral votes
Kerry: 242 electoral votes
States that haven’t been called yet:
Wisconsin - 10 (Kerry leading)
States that won’t know until tomorrow or late:
New Mexico - 5
Iowa -7
Ohio - 20
Bush is leading 51% to 48% in the popular vote, by almost 4 million votes. Voter turnout was pretty good, but the youth turnout (18-24) was the same percentage it was 4 years ago.
Basically the election has come down to Ohio. If Kerry takes 8 electoral votes from any of the non-Ohio states, Ohio can give him the presidency. However, if Ohio goes to Bush, the election is over.
Not surprisingly, the Kerry campaign wants to count all the votes in Ohio before deciding the outcome. Almost all of the precincts from Ohio are reporting, but there are still the provisional ballots (completed if something had gone wrong with traditional registration) that need to be counted, but by state law this can’t happen for another 10 days.
The Republicans are claiming there are only 125,000 provisional ballots yet to be counter. However, the Democrats and Ken Blackwell say there may be as many as 250,000 provisional ballots yet to be counter. This does not include overseas ballots. This difference is significant, as the latter allows a possible Democratic victory, while the former does not.
Both New Mexico and Iowa have chickened out, and announced due to either absentee ballots (NM) or election official fatigue (Iowa) they won’t finish counting until tomorrow.
The Kerry campaign also had the legal right to demand a recount in Ohio. However, as things continue to look grim, it’s possible that Kerry could concede in the near future (or might have already done so by the time you read this).
UPDATE: The president wants New Mexico called. Once it has been called by CNN, they are going to claim victory even if Kerry does not concede, as they believe the Democracts cannot mathematically claim Ohio. By the time you read this, Bush may already have declared victory. This will put pressure on Kerry to follow up by conceding.
Well, it’s been a tense and once again an unprecedented election night. Kerry’s predicted win has slipped into a grapple to hold on, much like Gore’s attempt to remain in the public light after election night in 2000. The Democratic party is down, but not out. Let’s take a look at where we were when I submitted this blog.
Bush: 254 electoral votes
Kerry: 242 electoral votes
States that haven’t been called yet:
Wisconsin - 10 (Kerry leading)
States that won’t know until tomorrow or late:
New Mexico - 5
Iowa -7
Ohio - 20
Bush is leading 51% to 48% in the popular vote, by almost 4 million votes. Voter turnout was pretty good, but the youth turnout (18-24) was the same percentage it was 4 years ago.
Basically the election has come down to Ohio. If Kerry takes 8 electoral votes from any of the non-Ohio states, Ohio can give him the presidency. However, if Ohio goes to Bush, the election is over.
Not surprisingly, the Kerry campaign wants to count all the votes in Ohio before deciding the outcome. Almost all of the precincts from Ohio are reporting, but there are still the provisional ballots (completed if something had gone wrong with traditional registration) that need to be counted, but by state law this can’t happen for another 10 days.
The Republicans are claiming there are only 125,000 provisional ballots yet to be counter. However, the Democrats and Ken Blackwell say there may be as many as 250,000 provisional ballots yet to be counter. This does not include overseas ballots. This difference is significant, as the latter allows a possible Democratic victory, while the former does not.
Both New Mexico and Iowa have chickened out, and announced due to either absentee ballots (NM) or election official fatigue (Iowa) they won’t finish counting until tomorrow.
The Kerry campaign also had the legal right to demand a recount in Ohio. However, as things continue to look grim, it’s possible that Kerry could concede in the near future (or might have already done so by the time you read this).
UPDATE: The president wants New Mexico called. Once it has been called by CNN, they are going to claim victory even if Kerry does not concede, as they believe the Democracts cannot mathematically claim Ohio. By the time you read this, Bush may already have declared victory. This will put pressure on Kerry to follow up by conceding.
